How Businesses Can Prepare for the Peak Sales Season in Fall and Winter

Businesses should begin preparing for the sales season before the number of orders starts to rise. Fall demand in the fourth quarter, Black Friday, pre-New Year’s shopping, and corporate orders can boost a company’s revenue. At the same time, businesses have to pay in advance for larger batches of goods, advertising, packaging, logistics, and the additional workload on staff.

The manager’s main task is to coordinate sales forecasts, purchasing, warehouse operations, and cash flow. The company needs to understand how much inventory will be needed, by when it must be received, how quickly the warehouse can process orders, and whether there will be sufficient liquidity until seasonal revenue comes in.

When should a business start preparing for the sales season?

The preparation timeline depends on the length of the procurement cycle. If a supplier ships products within a week, the company can adjust inventory more quickly. For imported goods or made-to-order products, several months may pass between placing an order and the shipment’s arrival at the warehouse.

It is advisable to plan for the peak sales season starting from the date when the product should already be available to the customer. From that date, allow time for the supplier to assemble the shipment, for production, delivery, customs clearance, receipt, and storage. A buffer for potential delays is added to the calculated timeframe.

The forecast is based on data from previous seasons. The manager needs to analyze sales by category, average ticket, peak weeks, out-of-stock items, returns, promotional results, and actual delivery times. If last year the online store received the most orders during Black Friday week and from December 10 to 25, these periods should be highlighted separately in the operational calendar.

In the B2B sector, the end of the year is often marked by an increase in corporate procurement. Companies order equipment, machinery, materials, gift sets, and services, and also use up the remaining funds in their annual budgets. Suppliers need to prepare commercial proposals, standard contracts, invoices, and available payment methods before the wave of requests begins.

How can you forecast demand and manage inventory?

Forecasts should be developed separately for product categories that differ in seasonality, profit margins, and delivery times. Simply increasing last year’s sales figures by the same percentage can result in a significant margin of error. Part of the product range will grow along with overall demand, certain items will receive additional promotional traffic, and high-priced items may sell more slowly than expected.

When performing the calculation, the following indicators must be evaluated:

• sales for the same period last year;
• order trends over the past few months;
• turnover for each product category;
• average order value and number of items per order;
• available inventory on hand;
• actual delivery times;
• minimum purchase quantity;
• expected traffic from advertising campaigns;
• safety stock level;
• a list of products with the strongest seasonality.

After collecting the data, a baseline forecast is generated on a weekly basis. For example, an online store sold 800 units of a certain category last November. Current sales growth is 10% higher, and the Black Friday campaign is expected to further increase the number of orders. A target of 1,000 units may be reasonable if the warehouse capacity, advertising budget, and logistics are designed to handle that volume.

Inventory planning must take two types of risks into account. A shortage of popular items leads to lost orders, reduced advertising effectiveness, and customers switching to competitors. Excess inventory at the end of the season ties up working capital, increases storage costs, and may require discounts to facilitate faster sales.

To assess risks, it’s helpful to develop several demand scenarios. A financial business model helps you see how inventory, expenses, profit, and cash on hand will change under base, optimistic, and stress scenarios for the season.

How do you negotiate with suppliers and prepare logistics?

Before placing a large order, you need to obtain confirmation from the supplier regarding available quantities, prices, shipment dates, and payment terms. It is advisable to replace verbal agreements with a written schedule. For key items, you can arrange to reserve inventory, split the delivery into several shipments, or secure the option to place urgent reorders.

The terms of cooperation should include procedures to follow in the event of a delay. The manager needs to know whether the supplier will be able to ship part of the order, offer a substitute, or defer payment for a shipment that will arrive later. For critical product categories, it is advisable to have an alternative supplier with proven delivery times and product specifications.

Even having sufficient inventory does not guarantee that all orders will be fulfilled. Warehouse throughput can become a bottleneck. If the team normally processes 150 shipments per day, but the forecast for a peak week is 350, it’s necessary to adjust the schedule in advance, set up additional workstations, or bring in extra staff.

They separately check the inventory of packaging materials, the operational condition of equipment, the accuracy of address-based storage, and the procedure for handling returns. They coordinate with carriers regarding pickup times, maximum capacity, and operating schedules on holidays. Having a backup carrier will reduce reliance on a single logistics plan.

How much working capital is needed for seasonal cash flow?

Seasonal sales growth can be accompanied by a cash shortage. The company pays for purchases, advertising, shipping, and additional team work before receiving all revenue. For a B2B supplier, this time lag increases if corporate clients pay 30 or 60 days after delivery.

The potential financing need can be calculated using the following formula:

Planned purchases + additional seasonal expenses + liquidity reserve − available funds = financing need.

Let’s say an online store needs to purchase goods worth 1.2 million UAH. An additional 200,000 UAH is budgeted for marketing, logistics, packaging, and extra staff. Available working capital amounts to 900,000 UAH. If a separate liquidity reserve is already included in the calculation, the company is short 500,000 UAH:

1,200,000 + 200,000 − 900,000 = 500,000 UAH.

Trying to come up with this amount after placing an order creates the risk of late payment to the supplier or having to cut back on other expenses. The financial plan must be approved before making the purchase. Then the manager can reduce the order quantity, split the delivery, negotiate a different payment schedule, or secure additional funding.

The payment schedule should show cash flow at least on a weekly basis. It should include payment dates for suppliers, payroll, taxes, advertising, logistics, and expected receipts from customers. A detailed cash flow forecast will help you identify the week with the lowest cash balance and determine the necessary reserve.

How can you finance a seasonal increase in purchases?

Using your own funds is appropriate for purchases that leave the company with sufficient liquidity. If making a full payment leaves the business without enough funds for payroll, taxes, advertising, and logistics, you’ll need to consider a different payment schedule.

For seasonal purchases, you can use supplier credit, a line of credit, an overdraft, factoring, targeted procurement financing, or B2B installment payments. The choice depends on the size of the shortfall, the inventory turnover period, the cost of the financing, and the future revenue schedule.

Let’s consider a continuation of this example. A store purchases a seasonal batch in September, sells most of the merchandise in November, and receives the proceeds gradually throughout November and December. Spreading out payments for purchases can align expenses with the period when cash is received and preserve some equity for advertising and fulfilling orders.

Installment payments for businesses through eDilo are processed online. The service page specifies the credit limit calculation based on the TIN or EDRPOU code, the option to pay over a period of up to six months, and the absence of a down payment, collateral, or guarantor. The decision and specific terms depend on the approval of the application.

Future payments for any resources secured must be included in the cash flow forecast before the agreement is signed. The forecast must confirm that the expected margin covers the cost of financing and that the company will be able to meet its schedule even if sales of part of its inventory are slower than expected.

How can you prepare your sales team for an increase in orders?

Preparing for the peak season covers the entire order journey: from the initial inquiry to payment, fulfillment, and delivery. Before launching an ad campaign, you need to verify that the prices and inventory levels on the website are up to date, check the speed at which orders are transferred to the CRM, and ensure that payment modules, notifications, and integrations with delivery services are functioning properly.

The team must be aware of the projected workload and their responsibilities on peak days. First-response targets are set for managers; the number of orders per shift is determined for the staff; and support teams prepare scenarios for handling delays, returns, and out-of-stock items. It is advisable to automate some of the repetitive tasks.

For B2B sales, templates for commercial proposals, contracts, specifications, and invoices are prepared in advance. The manager must quickly provide product specifications, price, available quantity, delivery time, and payment options. A delay of just a few days in providing a document could result in a large corporate order being transferred to another supplier.

Before the start of the season, it’s a good idea to place a test order. The team checks the checkout process on the website, payment, data entry into the CRM, product reservation, document printing, packaging, and handoff to the carrier. Any errors found are corrected before traffic increases.

Checklist for Preparing for the Fall-Winter Season

A comprehensive review helps align sales, purchasing, operational capabilities, and finances. Each item should have a designated person in charge and a completion deadline.

The checklist includes the following steps:

1. Start preparing your business for the sales season by analyzing last year’s data. Review sales figures, peak weeks, stock shortages, returns, and the results of promotional campaigns.
2. Develop a demand forecast by category. Take into account current trends, marketing campaigns, and changes to your product lineup.
3. Identify products at risk of stockouts. Separately flag items with long lead times.
4. Calculate your safety stock. Account for potential delays and fluctuations in demand.
5. Confirm deliveries. Specify volumes, prices, shipment dates, and payment terms.
6. Review warehouse and logistics operations. Calculate throughput capacity on the busiest days.
7. Create a seasonal budget. Include purchases, advertising, packaging, shipping, and personnel costs.
8. Prepare a cash flow statement. Break down receipts and payments by week.
9. Calculate your business’s working capital. Determine the lowest projected balance for the season.
10. Select a source of additional funding. Compare costs, processing times, and payment schedules.
11. Prepare a marketing calendar. Align each promotion with available inventory.
12. Test your website, CRM, and payment systems. Run an order through the entire operational workflow.
13. Distribute the workload. Identify changes, responsible staff members, and a backup team.
14. Prepare a contingency plan. Identify alternative suppliers and carriers.
15. Set seasonal KPIs. Monitor sales, margins, inventory turnover, inventory levels, and liquidity.

These figures should be reviewed weekly from September through December. Actual demand may differ from the forecast, so the supplier must adjust the volume of subsequent orders based on sales trends and inventory levels. This monitoring reduces the risk of simultaneous shortages of popular items and the accumulation of slow-moving inventory.

Before the start of the season, the company must have a confirmed procurement plan, agreements with suppliers, a prepared inventory, a team work schedule, and a cash flow forecast. The source of funding for the increased order volume is determined before the order is placed. On the eDilo website, you can check the options for paying for B2B purchases in installments and calculate your available credit limit.