How to Prepare Your Business for Black Friday 2026: Purchasing Without Straining Working Capital

Preparing a business for Black Friday begins long before the last Friday in November. Merchandise must be ordered, delivered, and stocked in the warehouse; advertising campaigns must be launched before peak week; and supplies of packaging and logistics capacity must be increased even earlier. The company covers these expenses before it receives the main revenue from the promotion. The financial challenge lies in building sufficient inventory while setting aside funds for salaries, taxes, rent, and ongoing supplies. General issues are covered in the article on preparing a business for the peak sales season. Here, we’ll focus on pre-season purchasing and its impact on cash flow.

Why Preparing Your Business for Black Friday Starts with Purchasing

The plan is developed in the following sequence: demand forecast – sales plan – required inventory – order to the supplier – delivery – sale – receipt of revenue. Each step influences the next. An overestimated forecast ties up money in unsold inventory, while an underestimated one leads to a shortage of popular items during peak traffic periods.

To calculate demand, analyze the following:

• sales during Black Friday 2025;
• trends over the past 8–12 weeks;
• sales, turnover, and inventory by category and SKU;
• average order value and number of items per order;
• items that were out of stock during the last promotion;
• advertising traffic forecast and promotional campaign budget;
• production, kitting, and delivery timelines for the shipment.

Forecasts are prepared by product category. An online store can significantly increase its inventory of bestsellers while maintaining current inventory levels for slow-moving SKUs.

How do you calculate inventory for Black Friday?

The basic model covers expected sales, safety stock, and available inventory:

Sales forecast for the promotional period + safety stock − usable inventory = estimated purchase volume.

The size of the safety stock depends on the accuracy of the forecast, the speed of restocking, and the risk of delays. If restocking takes four weeks, it’s harder to correct a shortage during peak demand than it is with a two-day delivery cycle.

It is advisable to divide the product range into three groups:

• A – High turnover and predictable demand. For these items, stockouts result in the greatest loss of revenue.
• B – Average turnover. Quantities are determined based on advertising support, discounts, and sales history.
• C – Slow turnover. Significant restocking increases the risk of leftover inventory after the promotion ends.

ABC analysis shows each SKU’s contribution to revenue or margin, while XYZ analysis assesses the stability of demand. Seasonal purchases for the AX group can be planned more accurately than for the CZ group.

How much working capital will be needed for Black Friday?

The increase in sales on Black Friday initially boosts the need for cash. The online store pays for inventory, marketing, and shipping preparation in October or early November, but receives revenue in late November and December. Cash-on-delivery, returns, or B2B payments extend this cycle.

You can estimate your needs using this formula:

Pre-season purchases + marketing + additional logistics + packaging + staff + reserve − available working capital = potential deficit.

Let’s consider a hypothetical online store:

Available working capital is calculated after setting aside funds for mandatory payments. If the entire balance is allocated to inventory, there may not be enough money in November to cover salaries, taxes, rent, or restocking bestsellers. This is due to the different timing of expenses and revenue.

How can you maintain liquidity while purchasing for Black Friday?

The cash conversion cycle covers the period between paying for goods and converting that money back into liquid funds. Preparing for Black Friday requires aligning four dates: payment to the supplier, receipt of the shipment, sale, and receipt of proceeds.

The following measures help reduce the one-time cash flow burden:

• splitting an order into several shipments;
• agreeing on different delivery dates;
• partial prepayment;
• deferral of final payment;
• reserving inventory at the supplier’s warehouse;
• procurement financing;
• installment payments for businesses.

The division of the shipment is coordinated with restocking schedules. Delivery after peak week creates the risk of lost orders. Flexible payment terms and an agreed-upon shipping schedule will be helpful during negotiations.

Purchasing Without Excessive Burden: How Financing Works

Financing is appropriate when there is a sales history, a reasonable forecast, sufficient margin, and a defined sales timeline. The process works as follows: supplier invoice → financing → receipt of goods → sale → scheduled payments.

The eDilo online service allows B2B buyers to purchase goods or services and pay in installments, while suppliers receive payment according to the service’s terms. The current page for buyers specifies a term of up to 12 months, an unlimited number of purchases, and a maximum limit of 5 million UAH. The terms of a specific transaction, the available limit, and the payment schedule must be clarified before finalizing the transaction.

For the presale batch, the model distributes the workload across several periods. Materials on procurement financing and large supplier invoices explain the relationship between procurement, capital, and payments.

Before closing a deal, the cost of financing is compared to the gross margin, and liquidity and stress-test cash flow are reviewed. The safe threshold is determined by the amount the business can repay even during a sales downturn while maintaining a reserve.

How do you determine a safe purchase amount?

The calculation is performed before the supplier’s invoice is confirmed:

1. Prepare a sales forecast for the promotional period.
2. Determine additional inventory by category and SKU.
3. Calculate the purchase cost of the batch.
4. Add marketing, logistics, packaging, and personnel costs.
5. Determine available internal funds.
6. Establish a minimum liquidity reserve.
7. Calculate the funding shortfall.
8. Determine the profit margin on goods after discounts and returns.
9. Forecast the time it will take to sell a batch.
10. Create a weekly schedule of incoming shipments.
11. Add upcoming purchase payments to it.
12. Adjust the model to account for lower sales.
13. Check the cash balance after each payment.

In this scenario, there is a shortfall of 700,000 UAH. The company checks whether its cash flow will cover payments after salaries, taxes, and rent. If the balance is negative, they reduce purchases, change the product mix, or adjust the schedule.

What happens if Black Friday performs worse than forecast?

A stress test shows the consequences of a deviation in demand. Suppose the purchased batch has a retail value of 1.8 million UAH, and payments for it are due in December and January. The calculation might look like this:

The figures are approximate. In a worst-case scenario, the store will have a cash shortfall of 220,000 UAH after selling 65% of the batch. For the remaining stock, they prepare pre-New Year’s gift sets, bundles, follow-up marketing campaigns, or an additional sales channel. The discount is verified based on the minimum margin.

For a B2B store, it’s also helpful to evaluate B2B financial services as part of the payment infrastructure and to monitor future revenue.

Black Friday 2026 Preparation Checklist

The final plan should cover inventory, operational capacity, and cash:

1. Analyze the results of Black Friday 2025.
2. Identify the categories and SKUs with the greatest potential.
3. Check actual inventory levels.
4. Prepare a sales forecast by category.
5. Determine the safety stock.
6. Calculate the volume of the additional shipment.
7. Agree on delivery schedules and stages.
8. Approve the marketing budget.
9. Check the composition, packaging, and logistics.
10. Prepare a weekly cash flow forecast for October–December.
11. Establish a minimum liquidity reserve.
12. Determine the portion of the purchase paid for with the company’s own funds.
13. Calculate the funding shortfall.
14. Compare payment methods for the bill.
15. Develop a baseline and a stress scenario.
16. Review the schedule of upcoming payments.
17. Prepare a plan for using up remaining balances in December.

Metrics are reviewed weekly after the ad campaign launches. Changes in traffic, conversion rates, average order value, or delivery times should trigger an update to the inventory forecast and cash flow projections.

Preparations for Black Friday 2026 combine demand forecasting, a purchasing plan, and weekly cash flow projections. The business determines the required inventory, the total amount of pre-season expenses, its own contribution, a liquidity reserve, and a potential financial shortfall.

The order volume is reviewed under both the base and worst-case scenarios. The company must adhere to the payment schedule if some of the merchandise remains in inventory in December.